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Title: Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño
Authors: Yin, Y.
Ciais, P.
Chevallier, F.
van der Werf, G. R.
Fanin, T.
Broquet, G.
Boesch, Hartmut
Cozic, A.
Hauglustaine, D.
Szopa, S.
Wang, Y.
First Published: 9-Oct-2016
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU), Wiley
Citation: Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 10,472–10,479.
Abstract: The large peatland carbon stocks in the land use change-affected areas of equatorial Asia are vulnerable to fire. Combining satellite observations of active fire, burned area, and atmospheric concentrations of combustion tracers with a Bayesian inversion, we estimated the amount and variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia over the period 1997-2015. Emissions in 2015 were of 0.51±0.17Pg carbon-less than half of the emissions from the previous 1997 extreme El Niño, explained by a less acute water deficit. Fire severity could be empirically hindcasted from the cumulative water deficit with a lead time of 1 to 2months. Based on CMIP5 climate projections and an exponential empirical relationship found between fire carbon emissions and water deficit, we infer a total fire carbon loss ranging from 12 to 25Pg by 2100 which is a significant positive feedback to climate warming.
DOI Link: 10.1002/2016GL070971
ISSN: 0094-8276
eISSN: 1944-8007
Version: Publisher Version
Status: Peer-reviewed
Type: Journal Article
Rights: Archived with reference to SHERPA/RoMEO and publisher website.
Description: This article was corrected on 2 NOV 2016. See the end of the full text for details.
Appears in Collections:Published Articles, Dept. of Physics and Astronomy

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