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|Title:||Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño|
van der Werf, G. R.
|Publisher:||American Geophysical Union (AGU), Wiley|
|Citation:||Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 10,472–10,479.|
|Abstract:||The large peatland carbon stocks in the land use change-affected areas of equatorial Asia are vulnerable to fire. Combining satellite observations of active fire, burned area, and atmospheric concentrations of combustion tracers with a Bayesian inversion, we estimated the amount and variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia over the period 1997-2015. Emissions in 2015 were of 0.51±0.17Pg carbon-less than half of the emissions from the previous 1997 extreme El Niño, explained by a less acute water deficit. Fire severity could be empirically hindcasted from the cumulative water deficit with a lead time of 1 to 2months. Based on CMIP5 climate projections and an exponential empirical relationship found between fire carbon emissions and water deficit, we infer a total fire carbon loss ranging from 12 to 25Pg by 2100 which is a significant positive feedback to climate warming.|
|Rights:||Archived with reference to SHERPA/RoMEO and publisher website.|
|Description:||This article was corrected on 2 NOV 2016. See the end of the full text for details.|
|Appears in Collections:||Published Articles, Dept. of Physics and Astronomy|
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