Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2381/4330
Title: Information, Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends in Six European Economies.
Authors: Lee, Kevin
Shields, Kalvinder K.
First Published: Aug-1999
Publisher: Dept. of Economics, University of Leicester.
Abstract: Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected manufacturing output series in six European Economies over the period 1968-1998.No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in the derived expectations series when measurement error is appropriately taken into account. The VAR analysis is used to derive measures of trend output and these measures are compared with the trend obtained using only actual data. The relative merits of the derived series are described with reference to the efficiency and parsimony of their use of information.
Series/Report no.: Papers in European Economics Studies
99/7
Links: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/discussion/papers1999.html
http://hdl.handle.net/2381/4330
Type: Report
Appears in Collections:Reports, Dept. of Economics

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