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Title: Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.
Authors: Jones, Michael J.
Neal, Christopher P.
Ngu, Wee Sing
Dennison, Ashley R.
Garcea, Giuseppe
First Published: 22-Apr-2017
Publisher: Springer (part of Springer Nature) for Arbeitsgemeinschaft Minimal Invasive Chirurgie (AMIC), Austria, Chirurgische Arbeitsgemeinschaft Minimal Invasive Chirurgie (CAMIC), Germany, Congresses of the German Society of Surgery (GSS), European Society of Endocrine Surgeons (ESES), German Association of Endocrine Surgeons (CAEK), German Society of General and Visceral Surgery (DGAV), Schweizerische Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Laparo- und Thorakoskopische Chirurgie (SALTC), Switzerland, Section for Surgical Research of the German Society of Surgery
Citation: Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery, 2017, 402 (5), pp. 811-819
Abstract: PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. METHODS: In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. RESULTS: A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.
DOI Link: 10.1007/s00423-017-1581-x
eISSN: 1435-2451
Version: Publisher Version
Status: Peer-reviewed
Type: Journal Article
Rights: Copyright © the authors, 2017. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Appears in Collections:Published Articles, Dept. of Cancer Studies and Molecular Medicine

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