Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2381/4768
Title: A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies
Authors: Jupp, Tim E.
Taylor, Christopher M.
Balzter, Heiko
George, Charles T.
First Published: 20-Jul-2006
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Citation: Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33, L14701.
Abstract: Forest fires in Siberia have a significant effect on the global carbon balance. It is therefore of interest to study the environmental factors that may be responsible for their variability. Here we examine variability in the annual number of forest fire scars at a spatial scale of 2.5°. This is decomposed statistically into a spatio–temporal component correlated with low summer rainfall, a spatial component correlated with population density and a temporal component correlated with the Arctic Oscillation. Data come from ten years of satellite–derived data, incorporating both the number of forest fire scars and monthly rainfall. The expected number of fire scars halves for each additional 0.35 mm per day of rainfall in the period April–July. Our findings may prove useful in parameterising both fire models within climate simulations and fire warning systems based on numerical weather predictions of regional dry anomalies.
DOI Link: 10.1029/2006GL026679
ISSN: 0094-8276
Links: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL026679/abstract
http://hdl.handle.net/2381/4768
Type: Article
Rights: This paper was published as Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33, L14701. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union. It is also available from http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL026679.shtml. Doi: 10.1029/2006GL026679
Appears in Collections:Published Articles, Dept. of Geography

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