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Title: Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?
Authors: Lee, Kevin
Shields, Kalvinder K.
First Published: Oct-2009
Publisher: Dept. of Economics, University of Leicester
Abstract: Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals’ economic well being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best represented through the calculation of the nowcast of recession event probabilities. A variety of such probabilities are produced using a real-time data set for the US for the period, focusing on the likelihood of various recessionary events through 1986q1 2008q4 and on prospects beyond the end of the sample.
Series/Report no.: Papers in Economics
Type: Report
Appears in Collections:Reports, Dept. of Economics

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