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|Title:||Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?|
Shields, Kalvinder K.
|Publisher:||Dept. of Economics, University of Leicester|
|Abstract:||Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals’ economic well being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best represented through the calculation of the nowcast of recession event probabilities. A variety of such probabilities are produced using a real-time data set for the US for the period, focusing on the likelihood of various recessionary events through 1986q1 2008q4 and on prospects beyond the end of the sample.|
|Series/Report no.:||Papers in Economics|
|Appears in Collections:||Reports, Dept. of Economics|
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