Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Full metadata record
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.advisorLee, Kevin-
dc.contributor.authorPires, Jacinta Paula-
dc.descriptionThe author's full name is: Jacinta Paula de Campos Viera Pires-
dc.description.abstractThis thesis provides an applied macroeconometric study of the determination of output and inflation and of stabilization policy. Its focus is on the time series analysis of output and inflation, concentrating on the use of direct measures of expectations and data obtained in real time, and modelled in multivariate settings. Direct measures of expectations are useful in this study as they allow a better understanding of the expectations formation processes as well as the role played by expectations in the output and inflation dynamics and in the conduct of monetary policy. The use of real time data is important as it focuses on information sets available when decisions are made. This study considers three empirical exercises using actual and expected output and inflation series for the UK and US for the last forty years and making use of different sources of survey data. They are presented to build an increasingly sophisticated picture of the interactions between growth, inflation and stabilization policy. The first chapter concentrates on the measurement of actual and expected inflation and output from different sources of survey data, eventually developing a multivariate framework with which to analyse expectations at different time horizons. The second chapter concentrates on the dynamics between actual and expected inflation and output, developing a simple growth model that distinguishes between the longrun trend in output and short and medium term fluctuation around that trend, with inflation assumed to be driven by a model of time-consistent monetary policy. The last chapter builds on the previous ones by considering a small macro model of the economy based on three main behavioural relationships: a Phillips curve, an IS curve and a monetary policy rule; its focus is on the role of expectations in the conduct of monetary policy.en
dc.rightsCopyright © the author, 2009.en
dc.titleModelling Output and Inflation Using Direct Measures of Expectationsen
dc.contributor.sponsorPortuguese Institution ”Fundação para Ciência e a Tecnologia”en_GB
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Leicesteren_GB
Appears in Collections:Theses, Dept. of Economics
Leicester Theses

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
ethesis_JPP.pdf877.28 kBAdobe PDFView/Open

Items in LRA are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.